On peut distinguer différents types de facteurs : Les facteurs extérieurs et intérieurs. Il y a eu un (seul) facteur extérieur majeur : l'intervention à plusieurs reprises des US dans les élections. Les USA sont clairement intervenus, dés le début de campagne et jusqu'à la veille du scrutin, non seulement pour soutenir Ma et sa politique inter-détroit, mais aussi et surtout pour attaquer Tsai, de manière nominative. Cette intervention a été choquante, et sans nuance.
Les interventions successives :
- L'intervention d'un officiel de la Maison Blanche, lors de la visite de Tsai aux US,
- Les déclarations de l'ancien directeur de l'AIT,
- Le programme de visa, dont une étape importante est publiée juste avant l'élection.
Jamais les US ne sont intervenus si fortement et si ouvertement dans les élections taiwanaises. Leur but est sans doute de faire plaisir à Pékin, puisque maintenant les US sont extrêmement dépendants de la Chine. L'autre raison, c'est le beuf américain. C'est le premier sujet mis sur la table après l'élection, donc on peut imaginer une négociation secrète entre Ma et l'AIT, et penser que l'US ont fortement soutenu Ma suite à cet accord secret.
D'où cette lettre "Openletter to US President Obama" :
Dear Mr President:
As the presidents of organizations representing US citizens deeply concerned about the state of democracy in Taiwan, we write to you to express our collective disappointment with recent statements and actions by your administration that we feel represented lapses in the political neutrality of the US government with regard to the recently concluded national elections in Taiwan. [...]
Extrait de l'article "US intervened in Jan. 14 election" :
[in September] right after [Tsai] met with US National Security Council and State Department officials [...] in Washington, the Financial Times reported a [now identified, White House] senior official as saying that Tsai had left [Obama’s] administration with “distinct concerns” about her ability to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Former [AIT] director Douglas Paal wrote an opinion piece on Jan. 11, titled “Taiwan Election has the US and China on Edge” [...]. [In this piece, he wrote,] “When Tsai was in the US last September, she suggested vaguely that the four-month interregnum should give Americans some room to see that she will handle things smoothly.” “It was this vagueness, however, that prompted administration officials’ doubt and did not reassure them. Subsequently, officials let it be known widely, but anonymously, that on the basis of what she had to say, they lacked confidence in her ability to manage cross-strait relations effectively,” he added.
[Paal] flew to Taiwan knowing full well that the presidential election “appeared to be tight.” On the evening of Jan. 12, Paal talked to a local TV station suggesting that Washington was unhappy with Tsai and her tougher approach to dealing with China. He further made it clear that both Washington and Beijing would breathe “a huge sigh of relief” if Ma were re-elected.
Although there is no way of knowing to what extent the US intervention affected the election result, the damage was done. In the eyes of many freedom-loving people, it is clear that the intervention has also tainted the US’ long-cherished reputation for fostering democracy.