23 août 2010

ECFA et les statistiques DGBAS

Le DGBAS (Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics ) a publié des statistiques mises à jour avec les dernières données.


Le rapport :


met surtout deux statistiques en avant :
  • Fort taux de croissance du PIB pour le deuxième trimestre : 12,53%
  • Réactualisation du taux annuel de croissance du PIB (6.14% en mai) : à 8.24% (qui serait le taux le plus haut depuis 21 ans)

Mais la presse économique, la presse taiwanaise et la presse hongkongaise ont surtout relevé un écart grandissant comme jamais entre riches et pauvres, en 2009.
  • << Ce qui inquiète le plus, c'est une disparité grandissante de revenus entre familles pauvres et familles riches, le taux en 2009 est de 6.34, c'est le plus élevé depuis 2001 (6.39). Sans tenir compte des aides du gouvernement et des avantages fiscaux, le taux est de 8.22, ce qui n'a jamais été aussi élevé. La répartition des richesses est de plus en plus polarisée à Taiwan. >>

Les tableaux (12 et 13) du DGBAS sont disponibles là :

D'autre part, le taux de chomage est de 5.16%, ce qui est le taux le plus élevé de tous les 4 petits dragons d'Asie. Et, pour ceux qui travaillent, les revenus sont au plus bas depuis 13 années.

D'où la crainte que l'ECFA déterriore encore davantage la situation, avec plus d'écart entre riches et pauvres, plus de chômage, plus d'inflation, plus de spéculation, un dollar NT plus cher.


Voici les articles que j'ai relevés, et qui mettent en avant le "Triangle Trade" comme cause principale du problème qui s'aggrave :


Du Liberty Times :
Extraits :
  • "[...] the double-digit growth is mainly the result of the lower basis for comparison, and overseas production activities by Taiwanese businesses could also distort their contribution to the country's economy."
  • "[...] the economic performance [...] is built upon high indebtedness, with debt issued during his term expected to reach NT$1.3 trillion by next year."

Du Taipei Times :
Extraits :
  • "[...] the persisting practice of triangular trade, in which manufacturers receive orders in Taiwan, but produce the goods at their offshore plants in order to keep costs down and maximize profits. This practice generates jobs overseas [...]."
  • "[...] Taiwan’s economic prosperity would be nothing but a mirage as most people will see their incomes fall, and they will not be satisfied with this unfair distribution of wealth."

De Commercial Times :
Extraits :
  • "[...] the number of families living under the poverty line in Taiwan has risen to 108,000, with 260,000 people involved, both record highs."
  • "[...] the ECFA might help to increase Taiwan's overall wealth, but it will also further polarize the country's wealth distribution, and in turn create new social injustice."

Du Apple Daily :
Extraits :
  • "Even though Taiwan might be able to achieve a 7 percent GDP growth rate this year, the wealth gap is not expected to narrow much because of the ever-rising ratio of "triangle trade" in the country's overall foreign trade."
  • ""Triangle trade" refers to order-taking in Taiwan, production taking place in China and goods finally exported to third destinations such as America and Europe. The ratio already shot up from 13 percent in 2000 to 50 percent in June this year. The triangle trade might help drive Taiwan's economic growth rate up, but only exporting companies and their shareholders will enjoy the fruits [...]."
  • "[...] the government should craft a sound tax system and adjust the tax rate from time to time to ensure more equitable distribution of wealth while not scaring away investors. Otherwise, the rise of an anti-mercantile complex could be an ominous sign of social instability."

Un autre article sur le même sujet :

Talk of the day -- GDP growth rate and commodity price hikes, 2010/08/19, By Sofia Wu, FocusTaiwan


A propos du taux de chômage :
Extraits :
  • "Taiwan had 578,000 jobless citizens in July 2010, equivalent to an unemployment rate of 5.2%"
  • "In July, Taiwan's unemployment rate was [...] higher than 4.3% in Hong Kong, 3.7% in South Korea and 2.3% in Singapore"


Encore un article intéressant sur le sujet :

Extraits :
  • "The Ma administration stresses economic growth, but only the rich are gaining from it. Meanwhile, the middle and working classes are feeling increasingly exploited."
  • "[After ECFA,] working people in Taiwan face even more direct competition from Chinese commodities and labor."
  • "The government’s economic policies have just added fuel to the fire. The more the government pushes for economic growth, the more working people feel they are losing out relative to the wealthy minority. The income gap is creating an M-shaped society in which the middle class is eroding."
Beaucoup de questions également au niveau politique :

Ma’s cross-strait approach worries US: expert, By Ko Shu-ling, Aug 26, 2010, Taipei Times

Extraits :
  • "Ma […] is more “uncertain” and “unpredictable” because he is trying too hard and going too fast in his attempts to improve cross-strait ties […]. "
  • "Ma has insisted that his government’s cross-strait policy is to proceed gradually, tackling both the easy and urgent issues while steadily moving toward more difficult and less pressing ones, Liu said. Economic issues also precede political ones."
  • "However, Beijing has been pushing for political talks and Washington is watching to see how much longer Ma can withstand the mounting pressure, Liu said. "